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End Times : élites, contre-élites et chemin de la désintégration politique-
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Lieu où se trouve l'objet : Oakland, California, États-Unis
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Numéro de l'objet eBay :226117120454
Caractéristiques de l'objet
- État
- Très bon état
- Commentaires du vendeur
- “Minimal wear to the lower front cover”
- Personalize
- No
- Signed
- No
- Ex Libris
- No
- Personalized
- No
- Inscribed
- No
- Vintage
- No
- ISBN
- 9780593490501
- Book Title
- End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
- Item Length
- 9.5in
- Publisher
- Penguin Publishing Group
- Publication Year
- 2023
- Format
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- Item Height
- 1.2in
- Genre
- Education, History, Social Science, Political Science
- Topic
- Social Classes & Economic Disparity, Future Studies, History & Theory, Curricula, Anthropology / Cultural & Social, American Government / General, Political Ideologies / Democracy, United States / General
- Item Width
- 6.3in
- Item Weight
- 20.5 Oz
- Number of Pages
- 368 Pages
À propos de ce produit
Product Information
"Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." --Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States. Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why. The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it's a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin's models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit. In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Penguin Publishing Group
ISBN-10
0593490509
ISBN-13
9780593490501
eBay Product ID (ePID)
9058362792
Product Key Features
Book Title
End Times : Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
Format
Hardcover
Language
English
Topic
Social Classes & Economic Disparity, Future Studies, History & Theory, Curricula, Anthropology / Cultural & Social, American Government / General, Political Ideologies / Democracy, United States / General
Publication Year
2023
Genre
Education, History, Social Science, Political Science
Number of Pages
368 Pages
Dimensions
Item Length
9.5in
Item Height
1.2in
Item Width
6.3in
Item Weight
20.5 Oz
Additional Product Features
Lc Classification Number
Jk1726.T87 2023
Reviews
"Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "' History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision, "In End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration , Mr. Turchin offers a lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings." --Wall Street Journal "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy." --Salon "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision "A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure." --Tim Adams, Observer "Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work." --Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg "From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing." -- The Guardian Summer Reading, "Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book." -- Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics "History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable': so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable-by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it." -- Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel "Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy." --Salon "Scintillating . . . Turchin's elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It's a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to." -- Publishers Weekly (starred review) "Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order." --Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (retired), sixteenth Supreme Allied Commander Europe at NATO, twelfth dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and author of To Risk It All: Nine Conflicts and the Crucible of Decision "A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure." --Tim Adams, Observer "Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work." --Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg "From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing." -- The Guardian Summer Reading
Lccn
2022-044451
Intended Audience
Trade
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Le vendeur assume l'entière responsabilité de cette annonce.
Numéro de l'objet eBay :226117120454
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Lieu où se trouve l'objet :
Oakland, California, États-Unis
Destination :
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| Livraison et expédition | à | Service | Livraison*Afficher les instructions de livraison |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4,87 USD (environ 4,49 EUR) | États-Unis | Economique (USPS Media MailTM) | Estimé entre le jeu. 30 mai et le jeu. 6 juin |
| 10,60 USD (environ 9,77 EUR) | États-Unis | Livraison prioritaire (USPS Priority Mail Padded Flat Rate Envelope®) | Estimé entre le ven. 31 mai et le mar. 4 juin |
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|---|
| Envoi sous 1 jour ouvré après réception du paiement. |
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Taxe de vente pour l'objet n°226117120454
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Évaluations en tant que vendeur (35)
t***u (52)- Évaluations laissées par l'acheteur.
Dernier mois
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Thank you!
e***d (15)- Évaluations laissées par l'acheteur.
6 derniers mois
Achat vérifié
Alles wie beschrieben. Nur die dünnwändige Verpackung hätte robuster sein sollen. Sie hat auf der langen Reise von der Westküste der USA nach Deutschland sichtbar gelitten. Das hätte auch das enthaltene Buch beschädigen können; was aber glücklicherweise nicht geschehen ist.
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Fast, well packaged, as described.
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